:: Baseball on Blake Street ::

:: Wednesday, February 16, 2005 ::

Trendlines:

If we look at the performance of teams as a cyclical function, which unless you have a huge payroll it's going to be (even then cycles are seen, although more subtle) then we can project when teams will reach their peak and for how long, and when they decline or rise. Payroll flexibility and prospect status play big roles (ask the Braves), as does aging and divisional strength or weakness. The win numbers therefore tend to have technical components similar to rising and falling stocks. The following is a synopsis of where each team in the NL West is in their cycle as well as their short and long term forecasts. The numbers include the strike shortened 1995 season projected to 162 games.

The Padres had a rapid decline after their last World Series appearance, followed by a relatively brief rebuild and have bounced off their 2003 low with an 87 win season. They have not quite reached their peak, but with the aging of Ryan Klesko and Phil Nevin and thinness at the back of their pitching staff, and without a well stocked farm system to replace the aging or overpriced parts, we can expect the peak period to be relatively brief. Last year they broke over their 10 year average. We think 90+ win seasons should be expected this year and next before a levelling takes them to just over .500 in 2007. 2008 and years beyond show further declines without significant acquisitions.

10 year win average: 86.4
5 year win average: 74.4
10Y Peak: 98
10Y Low: 64
Last year: 87

The Dodgers have probably just passed a mini peak, as last year's division crown seems to be a result of fortunate timing. Their system is well stocked, and the payroll will add flexibility next year indicating an extended long term peak is in the near future. Despite the excellent long term posture don't be surprised if they take a correction step back this year and next as key pieces mature. In 2005 and 2006 we see 85-90 win seasons, although 2006 could go higher depending on what they pick up in the free-agent market. 2007 and several years on show a string of 90+ wins.

10 year average: 86.6
5 year: 88.4
10Y Peak: 93
10Y Low: 77
Last year: 93

San Francisco hit its peak two years ago, and last year's 9 percent drop(below their 5 year average) indicated a decline phase has already begun. To hold this off another year they spent a lot of money in the offseason but we feel that the corrections aren't enough to counteract the aging. Despite some expected improvement in the pitching staff, the decline should be steep. This year we also see them dropping to the 85-90 win level although they have a greater downside than the Dodgers due to increased exposure to injuries, followed by three plus years of sub .500 baseball similar to the 1994-1996 teams. A complete rebuild of their offense will be necessary and that could take some time.

10 year average: 88
5 year: 94.6
10Y peak: 100
10Y low: 68
last year: 91

Colorado is hitting the floor of an extended valley. Indicators show a similar or worse result this year compared to last with a rapid rise starting in 2006. The good news is due to astute scouting and drafting their system is flush with high quality prospects. The next peak should therefore be quite a bit higher than any in the franchise's short history, and depending on management's ability to keep payroll flexibility after current problem contracts expire could last for several years. This makes them the Dodgers' primary competition starting in 2007 while the other divisional teams rebuild. Right now we have little confidence in on-field management, but still feel this team has long term upside.

10 year average: 77.1
5 year: 74
10Y peak: 86(1995 projection)
10Y low: 68
last year: 68

Arizona hasn't had a full ten years, but has already had a peak with a hook, and two low points. Their offseason moves are going to make the second low as brief as the first, but the next peak phase will be considerably less impressive due to a relatively limited farm system (particularly in pitching) and long term payroll issues. We see a 15 to 20 win spike in 2005, followed by a smaller rise in 2006 and then a levelling off for a couple of years around the .500 mark before a longer decline phase as the team develops a new core.

7 year win average: 82.14
5 year: 82
7Y peak: 100
7Y low: 51
last year: 51

:: Bran 11:09 AM [+] ::
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